When Uncertainty Strikes, Scenario Plan
While predicting the future is always a challenge, even in the most stable environments, uncertainty becomes particularly overwhelming when what was once predictable becomes an unknown. In such times, organizations can find themselves struggling to know what steps to take. Right now, many government agencies and nonprofits that rely heavily on federal funding are deeply mired in uncertainty. With ongoing policy changes and freezes on funding, many of these organizations—and the public and nonprofit workforce—are grappling with what to do next.
This is where scenario planning can be incredibly helpful. It allows organizations to regain a sense of control and better understand the challenges they may face. Scenario planning is a process that helps organizations envision potential future scenarios based on current information.
To begin scenario planning for your organization, consider all the external forces that could shape possible future outcomes. These forces may include political, financial, environmental, or other factors.
Next, identify all the plausible forces—those that could impact your organization’s ability to achieve its goals in the near future—and create scenarios based on them.
When creating these scenarios, it's useful to develop three key scenarios:
Best-case scenario: The fewest disruptions to your organization
Worst-case scenario: The greatest and most significant disruptions to your organization
Middle-case scenario: Moderate disruptions to your organization
For each scenario, assess its potential impact on your organization’s ability to meet its goals, such as delivering programs or services, bringing products to market, and so on. For example, if X happens, what will be the effect? Additionally, consider the impacts on your workforce and the financial health of the organization.
While this example is made up, it may be a pretty accurate reflection of what some organizations are currently grappling with.
Once you've determined the potential impacts of these scenarios, you can create an action plan to help mitigate the worst-case outcomes and address any uncertainties. The action plan should outline:
The steps your organization will take;
Who will be responsible for implementing these steps; and,
A timeline for executing these actions.
Here are some additional considerations to guide your action plan:
Prioritize mission-critical services: Identify which services or activities must be prioritized, such as those mandated by public charter or legislation, or those that generate the most revenue.
Cut costs to offset financial setbacks: Explore ways to reduce spending in the face of potential funding losses or other financial challenges.
Diversify funding streams: Consider ways to broaden your funding sources to minimize reliance on any one stream.
Support your workforce: Address how you can support your workforce (and yourself) during times of uncertainty. What communication strategies should you use? (Note: uncertainty can drive organizational conflict and disharmony. While it may not be possible to share all the details, consistent communication about what you do know, along with updates on scenario planning, upcoming changes, and your responses, can help reduce uncertainty and alleviate tension.)
While navigating uncertainty can be daunting, scenario planning helps restore a sense of control and ensures your organization is prepared to respond if the worst-case scenario comes to pass.
